The Black Swan – Nassim Taleb
Book - The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb
Background -
As much as we like to believe we are in control, part of becoming more resilient is becoming comfortable with that which we cannot control. Relying on predictions and forecasts can be a critical downfall, as theoretical models fail to adequately assess the probability of tail events.
The Book -
Nassim Taleb is a mathematician, former hedge fund trader and now author. He is an extremely acerbic character in his writing and commentary, having little patience for those he deems ‘stupid’ in his own sense of the word. Having said that, his writing is powerful, stories are relatable, and ideas challenge the conventional way of thinking. Taleb’s earlier book, The Black Swan, introduces the concept of an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. He argues these events happen more often than statistics would make you believe, and while impossible to predict, there are simple ways to limit your exposure to the risk.
He effectively and entertainingly explores the hubris of our predictions – and our perpetual surprise when the not-predicted happens. It concerns the occurrence of the improbable, the power of rare events and the author’s lament that “in spite of the empirical record we continue to project into the future as if we were good at it.” We expect all swans to be white and are shocked when a black swan swims by.
Result -
“The Black Swan” is at times entertaining, ambitious, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.”
Much of “The Black Swan” boils down to denouncing others for failing to see the future — though who exactly can see the future
